Goldman Sachs on oil, OPEC, Russia, Saudi. Hard road ahead for extension of output pact


Bloomberg repot on analysis via GS on oil markets.

Say the OPEC+ production cuts face difficulty in H2 2019

  • Current demand growth “neither will support exiting the production agreement, nor is bad enough to reinforce more cuts”
  • uncertainty over Iranian exports 
  • growing U.S. shale output
  • it “becomes increasingly difficult to know what production levels will balance the market” 
  • A weakening in consumption may require the group to extend cuts, a task which Russia may not be ready to sign up to. “It’s much easier to unify a position, when there is a supply disruption or a strong demand, then both Russia and Saudi Arabia want to grow production” 

Any excuse for some HH will do …


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